[Salon] NATO Would Lose a Conventional War w/Russia

[Chas Freeman <cwfresidence@gmail.com>]

Watch now (1 min) | Why NATO’s fragile defenses, weak industrial base, and energy dependence leave Europe dangerously exposed in any long war with Russia.

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NATO Would Lose a Conventional War w/Russia

Why NATO’s fragile defenses, weak industrial base, and energy dependence leave Europe dangerously exposed in any long war with Russia.

Daniel L. Davis Oct 6

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In this week’s episode of Daniel Davis Deep Dive, I sat down with military analyst Andrei Martyanov to confront a question that Western leaders don’t want to face: if NATO and Russia collided in a large‑scale conventional war, who would win?

Andrei’s answer is blunt: Europe cannot win a war of attrition. Period.

Why?

• Air defense failures. Europe’s systems, from the Aster 30 family on down, have performed dismally in combat.

• Industrial collapse. Europe lacks the capacity to produce enough munitions or ramp up wartime production without draconian measures it simply cannot implement.

• Energy dependence. Modern war runs on hydrocarbons, and Europe cannot match Russia’s reserves or production.

• Strategic imbalance. Moscow has spent three years stockpiling long‑range fires, air‑defense munitions, and advanced systems like the “Terminator” combat vehicle—while NATO has fallen further behind.

The bottom line: NATO—even with U.S. backing—would be at a severe disadvantage in a drawn‑out conventional conflict. The risks of escalation are not theoretical; they are existential.

This is not speculation. It’s a strategic warning. Andrei Martyanov lays out the numbers, the doctrine, and the vulnerabilities in stark detail.

👉 Watch the full episode now. The stakes for NATO, the United States, and the global order could not be higher.

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